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Comentario Económico del Día


Febrero 18. Los ciclos petroleros mundiales: ¿Qué esperar para 2015-2016?


La combinación mayor oferta no-OPEP y menor capacidad restrictiva OPEP demarca un nuevo paradigma petrolero hacia 2015-2016. Prospectivamente, Anif espera que el referente WTI aumente gradualmente hacia el rango US$65-75/barril durante el próximo quinquenio, perfilándose hacia el valor promedio de la última década de US$72/barril (dólares constantes de 2014). Este sería el resultado de balancear: i) desaceleraciones en la oferta petrolera global, provenientes de caídas drásticas en la exploración, con mayor énfasis marginal en los no convencionales y en las zonas convencionales distantes; y ii) recuperación en la demanda global por combustibles, donde a nivel de los hogares existe una elevada elasticidad-precio de la demanda. Esto implica que la mezcla del colombiano seguramente se recuperará hacia promedios de US$60/barril en 2015 y hacia los US$65/barril en 2016.

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